Macron scouts for new prime minister to quell turmoil

French president has no easy fixes after another government falls and could turn to a loyalist

Leila Abboud, Adrienne Klasa, and Sarah White in Paris

FT 09-09-2025

President Emmanuel Macron is searching for the fifth prime minister of his tumultuous second term, in the hope they can wrangle a deficit-cutting budget through a hung parliament and ward off another early legislative election.

The ousting of premier François Bayrou after he lost a confidence vote on Monday has sparked another political crisis that risks spreading to the streets and the markets, with protests and a potential ratings downgrade looming.

The Elysée palace said on Monday night that Macron would name a new premier in the coming days. But he has few viable options to forge a stable government given he has no parliamentary majority and does not want to call snap elections.

During his first term in office, Macron appointed only two premiers. He has already had four in the first two years of his final term, which ends in 2027.

This time it is less about the person chosen and more about the strategy for quelling the restive parliament long enough to at least pass a budget for 2026. At stake is Macron’s legacy, which was severely damaged by the snap election he called and lost last summer.

Here are some of Macron’s options:

The president’s camp

The president could stay the course and again pick a premier from his own three-party group. François Patriat, a longtime Macron ally and veteran senator, said this remained the most likely scenario, despite previous failures.

“It is the only real option. The president both needs someone he trusts and who has the canniness to negotiate,” Patriat said.

Having a loyalist in office could protect some of Macron’s major reforms, such as the two-year increase in the retirement age.

But for this strategy to work and the 2026 budget to pass, the new PM would have to convince the Socialists, the key swing voting bloc, to abstain in exchange for concessions. Bayrou had already tried and failed.

One loyalist in the running is defence minister Sébastien Lecornu, who has good relationships with other party leaders, in addition to being very close to Macron. He is the only remaining minister who has served in successive governments uninterrupted since 2017.

Julien Denormandie, another trusted ally from Macron’s first campaign, is a possibility, having earlier served as agriculture minister.

Being very close to Macron could backfire in negotiations with the opposition. “Naming a true loyalist is difficult,” said Matthieu Gallard, head of research at Ipsos France.

Gérald Darmanin, now the minister of justice, has also signalled interest in the job. A canny politician, he positions himself as tough on crime and immigration and an advocate of the working class. But he may appear too rightwing for the Socialists.

Another experienced hand would be Catherine Vautrin, a former conservative politician who now heads a ministry that oversees social welfare, health and labour issues. Macron almost named her as premier in 2022.

The risk with this strategy is that it could lead to the same outcomes — another budget blockade or another government falling. Such a scenario would probably push Macron into calling early elections again.

It could also reinforce the perception that the government no longer reflects French voters’ views. A recent Elabe poll showed only 6 per cent wanted another premier from Macron’s group.

The leftist option

Since last summer’s elections, the left has demanded the right to form a government as the grouping that won the most seats. Macron has repeatedly rejected their call, choosing instead to team up with the smaller conservative party, Les Républicains (LR).

Olivier Faure, the Socialist party’s leader, has now put his name forward as head of a government that would introduce a large wealth tax and suspend Macron’s increase of the retirement age to 64.

The Socialists have made clear they would only govern to implement a left-wing agenda that breaks with Macron’s policies, which they view as having been rejected by voters.

They are under pressure to demonstrate their leftist bona fides ahead of mayoral elections next year, or risk losing ground to the populist far-left. “It’s very important to not appear that we are ceding to Macron or his government, or that we are somehow conniving with them. Leftist voters will punish that,” said a Faure ally.

Another option, though unlikely, is Bernard Cazeneuve, a former Socialist prime minister, who left the party in 2022 over its decision to align with the far-left. His name surfaced as a possible candidate for prime minister last year — an option that was shot down by the Socialists themselves.

A conservative premier

It is a scenario Macron already tried with Michel Barnier, the conservative politician and former EU Brexit negotiator. Barnier stayed in office just three months before being ousted over his belt-tightening budget in December. Under Bayrou, the LR still co-operated with Macron’s government and had several sitting ministers.

One option is Xavier Bertrand, a veteran LR politician who heads the northern Hauts-de-France region where he has been an unbending opponent of the resurgent far-right Rassemblement National.

His emphasis on protecting workers makes him slightly more palatable to the left, but he would attract the wrath of the RN, the largest single party in the parliament.

Barnier had sought to negotiate with RN leader Marine Le Pen, but she rejected his offers, forcing his ousting.

Le Pen’s positions have since hardened as she pushes for another election as soon as possible, so the RN is not a viable negotiating partner for any premier.

A technocrat

Given that the new premier’s main objective will be the 2026 budget, Macron could turn to a technocrat steeped in public finances. A recent poll by Elabe showed that 39 per cent of French voters supported the idea of an “apolitical” head of government.

Éric Lombard, France’s current finance minister, has pitched himself as someone who can serve as a bridge to the Socialists given that he used to be a party member. Lombard has the disadvantage of having been the face of Bayrou’s unpopular budget proposal. Nor has the former banker ever held elected office.

A similar option would be Pierre Moscovici, a Socialist finance minister under former president François Hollande. Moscovici now heads the country’s national auditor where he has repeatedly warned of the parlous state of public finances.

A more neutral choice would be François Villeroy de Galhau, who has been the head of France’s central bank since 2015.

Whoever is named will face similar constraints to his predecessors, and allies warn Macron will have to allow the new premier to compromise with the opposition if they are to survive.

“The president needs to abandon some of his dogmas — like refusing any tax rises,” said Patriat.