The NSC statement mirrored actions announced by India on Wednesday, and included the closure of the Wagah Border Post with “immediate effect”, the suspension and cancellation of SAARC visas for Indian nationals (excluding Sikh pilgrims), the designation of Indian defence advisors as personae non grata in Pakistan, a reduction in the staff of the Indian High Commission, the closure of Pakistani airspace to Indian airlines, and the suspension of all trade with India.

The moves follow India’s response to Tuesday’s attack on tourists in Indian-administered Kashmir, which resulted in the deaths of at least 26 people.

Following a cabinet meeting on Wednesday, chaired by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the Indian government announced a series of measures, including the suspension of its part in the 65-year-old Indus Waters Treaty, a pact that allows both countries to irrigate their agricultural lands.

Islamabad, Pakistan – Pakistan threatened to suspend its participation in all bilateral agreements with India, including the 1972 Simla Agreement, on Thursday in a retaliatory move after India said it would suspend its own participation in the Indus Water Treaty and close the land border the day before.

The Simla Agreement was a peace accord signed by the two countries a few months after Bangladesh became independent from Pakistan.

In a media conference, Indian Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri also announced the closure of the border with Pakistan, slashed the number of Indian diplomatic staff in Pakistan, ordered Pakistani citizens under the SAARC scheme to leave the country within 48 hours, and expelled Pakistani military attaches posted in India. This response has been soundly interpreted as India blaming Pakistan for the attack in Kashmir.

The Himalayan territory of Kashmir has been a flashpoint between the two countries since they gained independence from British rule in 1947, with each country controlling parts of Kashmir but claiming it in full. Since independence, the nuclear-armed neighbours have fought four wars, three of them over Kashmir.

Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar, who also serves as deputy prime minister, called the Indian steps “immature and hasty” in a television interview on Wednesday night, .

“India has not given any evidence [of Pakistani involvement in the attack].” They have not shown any maturity in their response. This is not a serious approach. They started creating hype immediately after the incident,” said Dar, who also serves as deputy prime minister.

Defence Minister Khawaja Asif also rejected India’s implication of Pakistani involvement in the attack.

“India’s allegation against Pakistan for the Pahalgam incident is inappropriate. There should be no ambiguity that we strongly condemn terrorism,” Asif said.

What is the Indus Waters Treaty?

Signed in 1960, the origins of the IWT trace back to August 1947, when British colonial rule over the Indian subcontinent ended and India and Pakistan became two separate sovereign states. India is the upper riparian (located upstream) while Pakistan is the lower riparian, which means India has control over how the river flows.

Because both countries rely on the water from the Indus basin’s six rivers for irrigation and agriculture, they signed an agreement called the Standstill Agreement to continue allowing the flow of water across the border. When the Standstill Agreement expired in 1948, India stopped the water flow towards Pakistan from its canals, prompting an urgent need for negotiations on water sharing.

Following nine years of negotiations mediated by the World Bank, former Pakistani President Ayub Khan and former Indian PM Jawaharlal Nehru signed the IWT [PDF] in September 1960. The treaty gives India access to the waters of the three eastern rivers: the Ravi, Beas and Sutlej.

Pakistan, in turn, gets the waters of the three western rivers: the Indus, Jhelum and Chenab.

India can use the western rivers to generate hydroelectric power and for some limited agriculture, but cannot build infrastructure that restricts the flow of water from those rivers into Pakistan or redirects that water.

What would the suspension of this treaty mean for Pakistan?

It represents a threat from India that it could, if and when it chooses to, restrict the flow of water from the Indus, Jhelum and Chenab into Pakistan.

It does not mean that India plans to limit that flow immediately.

Even if it wanted to, it is unlikely that India could immediately stop the flow of water even though it has suspended its participation from the treaty.

This is because India has upstream reservoirs constructed on the western rivers, but their storage capacity cannot hold enough volumes of water to hold back water entirely from Pakistan. It is also high-flow season when ice from glaciers melts between May and September, keeping water levels high.

“The western rivers allocated to Pakistan carry very high flows, especially between May and September. India does not currently have the infrastructure in place to store or divert those flows at scale,” Hassaan F Khan, assistant professor of urban and environmental policy and environmental studies at Tufts University in the United States, told Al Jazeera.

However, if India were to try to stop – or cut – the water flow, Pakistan might feel the effects in seasons when water levels are lower. Pakistan relies heavily on the water from the western rivers for its agriculture and energy. Pakistan does not have alternative sources of water.

Pakistan has a largely agrarian economy, with agriculture contributing 24 percent to the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) and 37.4 percent to employment, according to Pakistan’s most recent economic survey published in 2024. The country’s statistics bureau says that the majority of the population is directly or indirectly dependent on the agriculture sector. According to the World Bank, the country’s current population is about 247.5 million.

Does India have the power to suspend this treaty?

While India has declared abeyance from the treaty, legal experts say that it cannot unilaterally suspend the treaty.

“India has used the word abeyance and there is no such provision to ‘hold it in abeyance’ in the treaty,” Ahmer Bilal Soofi, a Pakistani lawyer, told Al Jazeera. The treaty can only be modified by mutual agreement between the parties.

“It also violates customary international laws relating to upper and lower riparian where the upper riparian cannot stop the water promise for lower riparian,” Soofi said.

Anuttama Banerji, a political analyst based in New Delhi, told Al Jazeera that the treaty might continue, but not in its present form. “Instead, it will be up for ‘revision’, ‘review’ and ‘modification’ – all three meaning different things – considering newer challenges such as groundwater depletion and climate change were not catered for in the original treaty,” Banerji said.

“In principle, a unilateral suspension of a bilateral treaty can be challenged as a breach of international law,” Khan, the Tufts University assistant professor, told Al Jazeera.

However, the enforcement of this is complicated, Khan added. “The Indus Waters Treaty is a bilateral agreement without a designated enforcement body. While the World Bank has a role in appointing neutral experts and arbitrators, it is not an enforcement authority.”

Khan explained that if Pakistan wanted to pursue legal recourse, it would likely be through international forums such as the International Court of Justice (ICJ). “In practice, the main costs for India would be reputational and strategic: undermining its image as a rules-based actor, especially given its own status as a downstream riparian on other transboundary rivers.”

Khan said that the broader strategic goal of the IWT suspension seems to be a renegotiation of the treaty. “India has been signalling its desire to revise or renegotiate the treaty for some time,” he said, explaining that India had asked to renegotiate the treaty in January 2023 and again in September 2024, citing climate change and implementation challenges. Pakistan has so far refused.

“The recent announcement appears to be an attempt to apply pressure and force a renegotiation on terms more favourable to India. Whether this strategy succeeds remains to be seen, but it marks a significant departure from six decades of treaty stability.”

What other steps is India taking in response to the attack in Kashmir?

Besides the abeyance of the IWT, Mirsi announced other steps, 

Including:

• The main land border crossing between the two countries, the Integrated Check Post Attari, or the Attari-Wagah crossing, will be closed with immediate effect and those who have crossed over with “valid endorsements” have to return through the route before May 1.
• Any SAARC Visa Exemption Scheme (SVES) visas granted to Pakistanis have been cancelled and any Pakistani currently visiting India on the SVES visa has to leave within 48 hours of the statement issued on Wednesday.
• The military, naval and air advisers in the Pakistani High Commission in New Delhi are considered personae non gratae and have a week to leave India, while Indian military, naval and air advisers will be pulled back from the Indian High Commission in Islamabad. To be persona non grata in a country means to be unwelcome.
• Five support staff members will also be pulled from each High Commission.
• The staffing for each High Commission will be reduced from 55 members to 30 through further reductions by May 1.

Pakistan announces countermeasures against India

By Xinhua Published: Apr 25, 2025   

India's move targeting Pakistan following a shooting incident in the Indian-controlled Kashmir was "highly irresponsible and legally unfounded," and Pakistan will adopt a series of countermeasures against India, the Prime Minister's Office said in a statement on Thursday.

Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif chaired a high-level meeting of the National Security Committee on Thursday, the statement said. The committee expressed concern over the loss of tourists' lives in the incident, and Pakistan unequivocally condemns all kinds of terrorism.

In the absence of any credible investigation and verifiable evidence, India's attempts to link the attack with Pakistan are "reckless, irrational and illogical," it said.

In response, Pakistan will close down the Wagah Border Post, suspend certain visa facilities for Indian nationals, declare the Indian Defence, Naval and Air Advisors in Islamabad persona non grata, close Pakistan's airspace for all Indian airlines, and suspend all trade activities with India, the statement said.

Indian media said that at least 25 people were killed and several others wounded on Tuesday after unknown gunmen fired at them in the Indian-controlled Kashmir.

India has accused Pakistan of involvement in the attack.

On Wednesday, the Indian government announced several measures against Pakistan, including the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty, border closure, and the expulsion of Pakistani personnel.

India's Ministry of External Affairs announced on Thursday that it would suspend all categories of visas for Pakistani nationals starting immediately, and advised Indian citizens against traveling to Pakistan, according to Indian media.

Source: Media, With  ENB Addition