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UPI ID : enb@axis.com
UPI ID : enb@axis.com
The strategic paradox:Why the 2002 peace process was the LTTE’s beginning of the end16 February 2026 Mirror AI Summary - Quick ReadThe critics at the foundation institute argued that the LTTE was incapable of democracy. While their track record support this, the peace process offered them a “Golden Bridge” to retreat across. Had Velupillai Prabakaran possessed the foresight of the JVP (Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna) - which transitioned from a violent insurgency to a ruling Democratic Party- the history of the North and East would be prosperity rather than bloodWhile experts on the ethnic crisis have dismissed the 2002 peace efforts as futile, a more clinical analysis reveals a different truthThe peace process acted as a “peace trap.” By engaging in talks, the LTTE was held to a higher standard of international scrutinyIn Military theory, a “Strategic Pause” is rarely about peace for the sake of peace; it is about changing the conditions of the battlefield. By 2002, the Sri Lankan State and the LTTE were in a “hurting stalemate”. However, the peace process orchestrated by Prof. GL Peiris shifted the conflict from the jungle to the negotiating table-a terrain where the LTTE was inherently disadvantagedThe 2002 Peace Process, facilitated by Norway, is viewed as a double-edged sword for the LTTEThe seminar held on February 12, 2026, at the Sri Lanka Foundation Institute, organised by senior lawyer and respected political activist Shiral Lakthilake, provided a rare intellectual collision regarding the legacy of Prof. GL Peiris’ work: “The Sri Lanka Peace Process : An Inside View”.Former Foreign Minister ofSri Lanka G. L. Peiris addressesthe General Assembly at UNHeadquarters in New YorkWhile esteemed panelists like Dr. Sarath Amunugama and Dr. Dayan Jayathilaka dismissed the 2002 peace efforts as a futile exercise with a “ruthless terrorist organization”, a deeper, more clinical analysis reveals a different truth.The 2002 Peace Process, which was facilitated by Norway, is often viewed as a double-edged sword for the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE). While it initially gave them international legitimacy and “co-equal” status with the government, it ultimately set the stage for their military defeat by triggering internal fractures and hardening the international community’s stance against them.Strategic pause: Gaining the initiativeIn Military theory, a “Strategic Pause” is rarely about peace for the sake of peace; it is about changing the conditions of the battlefield. By 2002, the Sri Lankan State and the LTTE were in a “hurting stalemate”. However, the peace process orchestrated by Prof. GL Peiris shifted the conflict from the jungle to the negotiating table-a terrain where the LTTE was inherently disadvantaged.For the Sri Lankan Government, the peace process offered a critical window to:Recuperate and Re-arm: Modernising the military hardware and intelligence apparatus.The peace process effectively acted as a “peace trap.” By engaging in talks, the LTTE was held to a higher standard of international scrutiny that they struggled to meet.The “War on Terror” Context: Post-9/11, the global climate shifted aggressively against non-state armed groups. The LTTE’s continued use of child soldiers and political assassinations during the ceasefire alienated their international backers.Proscriptions: While the peace process was ongoing, major powers grew tired of LTTE’s intransigence. In 2006, the European Union officially designated the LTTE as a terrorist organization, following the lead of the US, India, and the UK. This choked off their diaspora funding and procurement networks.The Washington Boycott: A symbolic turning point occurred in 2003 when the LTTE was excluded from a donor conference in Washington D.C. (as they were a banned group in the US). The LTTE withdrew from talks in protest, but this move only served to portray them as the “spoilers” of peace.The “Dilemma” Tactic: It forced the LTTE to choose between a dramatic pathway (which threatened their totalitarian control) or returning to war (which would brand them as the aggressors)Prof. G.L. Peiris (left) and Anton BalasinghamInternal fracture: The Karuna FactorPerhaps the most significant military outcome of the peace process was the defection of Vinayagamoorthi Muralitharan known as Karuna Amman with thousands of cadres. In, 2004, as the commander of the Eastern Province and second in command to Velupille Prabakaran, Karuna represented the backbone of the LTTE’s fighting force.The peace process allowed internal regional grievances within the LTTE to breathe. The Eastern cadres, who felt they were being used as “cannon fodders” for the Jaffna - centric leadership, utilised the period of relative calm to reassess their loyalties. The major impact was catastrophic for the LTTE for three reasons.LOSS OF LAND MASS: The Eastern Province ( Ampara, Trincomalee and Batticaloa) is geographically massive. Losing control over Eastern province meant the dream of a “contiguous” Eelam was mathematically dead.DEPLETION OF MAN POWER: The LTTE was split into three distinct Human Resources segments: Jaffna, Wanni, and the East. The loss of the Eastern cadres meant the LTTE could no longer sustain a two front war against a much larger Sri Lanka Army.INTELLIGENCE GOLDMINE : The defection provided the Sri Lankan Military with unprecedented tactical intelligence regarding LTTE bunker lines, supply routes, and hidden caches.The erosion of “will to fight”The legacy of Prof. GL Peiris’ work: “The Sri Lanka Peace Process: An Inside View”In Clausewitzian Military theory, the “will to fight “ is the centre of gravity for any insurgency. The peace process attacked this centre of gravity with surgical precision.During the years of cease fire agreements (CFA), the LTTE cadres were exposed to a “normal” life for the first time in decades. Thousands of cadres entered the marriages and started families. While thus sounds like a humanitarian success, from a cold military- scientific perspective, it was the beginning of the end for their fighting spirit. “A soldier or terrorist with a child is no longer a soldier or a terrorist who seeks martyrdom; he is a soldier/ terrorist who seeks survival.”The transition from a “suicidal and disruptive mentally” to a domestic one created a psychological conflict. When the fanatical zealots; it was a group of individuals who now had something to lose. The “willingness to sacrifice” was replaced by the “instinct to protect” one’s family, fundamentally weakening the LTTE’s asymmetric advantage.Sri Lanka’s Government and Tamil Tiger rebels met for peace talks in the Norwegian capital, OsloDemocratic opportunity missedThe critics at the foundation institute argued that the LTTE was incapable of democracy. While their track record support this, the peace process offered them a “Golden Bridge” to retreat across. Had Velupillai Prabakaran possessed the foresight of the JVP (Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna) - which transitioned from a violent insurgency to a ruling Democratic Party- the history of the North and East would be prosperity rather than blood.The LTTE leader would have transitioned into a Chief Minister governing a legally recognised provincial administration. Instead, by rejecting the peace process’s Democratic concessions, the LTTE Proved to the global community that they were primary obstacle to peace, by justifying the total military solution that followed.Conclusion: A success misunderstoodMany historians argue that the LTTE’s withdrawal from the peace talks in 2003 was their biggest strategic blunder, as it allowed the government to frame the subsequent military offensive as a “humanitarian rescue mission” against an “unreasonable” foe.“To the civilian, a ceasefire looks like a halt. To an infantry officer, it looks like a preparatory phase. We didn’t just sit idle during the peace process; we used that time to sharpen the blade. We analysed our past failures, bolstered our ranks, and waited for the moment when the strategic landscape shifted in our favor. It was the silence between the storms that allowed us to gather the strength required to end the war permanently.”The peace process led by professor GL Peiris was not a “waste of time”. It was the “Grand Strategy” that set the stage for the military victory. It achieved what bullets alone could not. It fractured the enemy from within, depleted their Human Resources through Karuna defection and rotted their fanatical “will to fight” through the introduction of domestic normalcy.Sri Lankan government chief negotiator G. L. Peiris (R) sits next to his Tamil Tiger adversaries at the opening of peace talks in Thailand which were held from 16-18 September in 2002(The writer is a battle hardened Infantry Officer who served the Sri Lanka Army for over 36 years, dedicating 20 of those to active combat. In addition to his military service, Dr Perera is a respected International Researcher and Writer, having authored more than 200 research articles and 16 books. He holds a PhD in economics and is an entrepreneur and International Analyst specialising in National Security, economics and politics. He can be reached at sirinimalb@hotmail.com)
U.S. and Israel launch attack on Iran as Trump calls for regime changeSmoke rises over Tehran on Saturday. (AP)Trump urges Iranians to ‘take over your government’ following offensiveIsrael’s Benjamin Netanyahu said the assault would last “as long as needed.”The Pentagon has named this “Operation Epic Fury,”The president promised to destroy Tehran’s missile program and urged Iranians to take over the government. Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu said the assault would last “as long as needed.”The U.S. military has launched “major combat operations in Iran,” President Donald Trump said Saturday, vowing to eliminate Tehran’s missiles and nuclear program, and fuel a change in government. “I want a safe nation, and that’s what we’re going to have,” Trump told The Washington Post soon after. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced a joint attack with the U.S. that would last “as long as needed,” unleashing a conflict that threatens to engulf the region. As explosions rang out in Tehran and other cities, Iran said it retaliated against Israel with missiles and drones. The U.S. recently assembled an immense strike force in the region while pressing Iran to dismantle its nuclear operations.Lior SorokaAyatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader, and “other senior Iranian officials were targets” in Saturday’s strikes on Iran, according to a person familiar with the matter who spoke to The Washington Post on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak to the media.British military did not participate in attacks, U.K. saysGreg MillerThe British military did not participate in the strikes on Iran, according to information provided by U.K. officials that did not address whether the United States used or had permission to use U.K. bases including Diego Garcia, which is home to a base for U.S. bomber aircraft.British Prime Minister Keir Starmer summoned senior national security officials to a meeting Saturday morning to discuss the strikes, officials said. British officials revealed that the country’s military had moved additional assets to its installations in the region in recent weeks for “defensive purposes,” including radar systems, counter-drone systems, F-35 fighter jets and ground-based air-defense systems.In a statement, the British government expressed support for the objectives of the U.S. and Israeli campaign but stopped short of endorsing the strikes themselves.“Iran must never be allowed to develop a nuclear weapon, and that is why we have continually supported efforts to reach a negotiated solution,” a British official said, speaking on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the matter. “We do not want to see further escalation into a wider regional conflict.”The government said it was working to ensure the safety of U.K. nationals in the Middle East and that the British military has “a range of defensive capabilities in the region, which we have recently bolstered. We stand ready to protect our interests.”Alarms sound across the gulf as Iran threatens U.S. basesMohamad El Chamaa, Mustafa Salim, Heba Farouk Mahfouz and Suzan HaidamousIranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told his Iraqi counterpart that all American bases in the region are under threat of Iranian attacks, a statement by the Iraqi Foreign Ministry read.Several Persian Gulf countries housing U.S. forces have reported attacks, with the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Qatar saying they were able to intercept Iranian rocket fire. The UAE Ministry of Defense said shrapnel fell on a residential area in Abu Dhabi, which resulted in some damage and one death. Earlier, a large explosion was seen in Bahrain as Iran targeted a service center belonging to the U.S. Fifth Fleet.A statement by the Qatari Defense Ministry noted that several strikes on its territory were “successfully countered.” Qatar is home to the al-Udeid Air Base, which houses a U.S. Air Force unit and came under Iranian fire during last June’s 12-day war.Gulf diplomats previously warned the U.S. that a war with Iran would endanger American interests in the region. Saudi Arabia, which in recent years has warmed ties with its longtime arch foe Iran, condemned the attacks. The Qatari Foreign Ministry also condemned the attacks and said it had a right to respond, but called for de-escalation and for a return to dialogue.Anthony FaiolaReza Pahlavi, the exiled eldest son of the last shah of Iran who has emerged as the most prominent opposition leader following street protests last month, called on Iranians to pour again into the streets at the “appropriate time” to precipitate a “final victory” over the government’s “apparatus of repression.”Pahlavi has repeatedly called on President Donald Trump to intervene in Iran and has reportedly met in private with U.S. officials, though Trump has publicly been noncommittal about his support for Pahlavi. “He seems very nice, but I don’t know how he’d play within his own country,” Trump told Reuters last month.Tara Copp and Alex HortonThe U.S. Navy’s 5th Fleet at Naval Support Activity in Bahrain was hit by a missile attack, the country’s official communications center said Saturday. Staffing at the base had been reduced in recent days in case of retaliatory strikes, Fox News had previously reported, citing U.S. officials.Natalie AllisonPresident Donald Trump shared an article about Iran seeking to interfere in U.S. elections on his Truth Social account a couple of hours after U.S. strikes began in Iran early Saturday.“Iran tried to interfere in 2020, 2024 elections to stop Trump, and now faces renewed war with United States,” the post read, with a link to a piece from Just the News, a conservative website from which Trump frequently shares articles. Shortly after, the president posted another article from the site, albeit unrelated to Iran; it was about the Fulton County, Georgia, prosecutor Fani T. Willis.Tara CoppIran is launching retaliatory strikes against U.S. bases in the region, a U.S. official said. No further details were immediately available on which installations were being targeted. The U.S. has maintained about 30,000 forces in the Middle East, not including the recent surge of Air Force and Navy assets.More than a dozen U.S. warships are supporting the operationTara CoppMore than a dozen U.S. warships are in the region to support military operations, a Navy official said, speaking on the condition of anonymity as they were not authorized to speak to media. As of Friday, two U.S. destroyers, the USS Michael Murphy and USS Mitscher, and two littoral combat ships, the USS Canberra and USS Santa Barbara, were near the Strait of Hormuz.The Navy has also amassed a large presence of firepower in the Arabian Sea, including the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier and seven destroyers: The USS Frank E. Petersen, Jr., the USS Spruance, USS Delbert Black, USS John Finn, USS McFaul, USS Milius and USS Pinckney. The littoral combat ship the USS Tulsa is also in the Arabian Sea, the Navy official said. The aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford is in the region after sailing from the Caribbean to support the operation, the official said.The Pentagon has named this “Operation Epic Fury,” a U.S. official said.Trump urges Iranians to ‘take over your government’ following offensiveAnthony FaiolaPresident Donald Trump issued a direct call to the Iranian people to “take over your government” in the aftermath of the attack on Iran, indicating that regime change is a U.S. goal.The strategy harkened to a legacy of American hawks who have sought to bring down hostile foreign governments, but came with the pointed suggestion that the Iranian people should rise up to deal the final blow to its leaders.That stands in contrast to past U.S. interventions such as the 2003 invasion of Iraq, in which American-led ground forces conducted a land invasion to drive Saddam Hussein from power.“Bombs will be dropping everywhere. When we are finished, take over your government. It will be yours to take,” Trump said. “This will be probably your only chance for generations. For many years, you have asked for America’s help, but you never got it. … Now you have a president who is giving you what you want, so let’s see how you respond.”The sweeping U.S. and Israeli air strikes come weeks after a crackdown on protestors in Iran left some Iranians feeling betrayed after Trump failed to take military action following his promising to “come to the rescue” in the event the government killed peaceful protestors.The Iranian crackdown on protests left more than 7,000 people dead, according to the Human Rights Activists News Agency, a U.S.-based advocacy organization for rights in Iran.Tara CoppLike the major previous operations in Iran and Venezuela, the U.S. attack is a complex, multi-domain effort that involves the Space Force, Marines, Army, Navy and Air Force, a U.S. official said, speaking on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak to the media. Both President Donald Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth are expected to provide updates on the operation later Saturday, the U.S. official said.In a brief phone call with The Washington Post just after 4 a.m. Saturday, President Donald Trump said his main concern is “freedom” for the Iranian people, and that the U.S. is working to make Iran a place that’s “safe.”“All I want is freedom for the people,” Trump told The Post, asked about what he hoped his legacy would be as a result of the operation. “I want a safe nation, and that’s what we’re going to have.”
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